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Reproducibility Crisis in Psychology, and Other Science Woes
Here’s more evidence that human pride, greed and ambition can get in the way of the ideals of science.ReproducibilityThe Open Science Collaboration tried to reproduce 100 psychology results published in leading journals. Their results, published in Science Magazine, show that only about a third yielded significant results in support of the conclusions, even when the original authors certified the methods used.“Many psychology papers fail the replication test,” John Bohannon reported in the same issue of Science Magazine. By any measure, a two-thirds failure rate is statistically significant. The researchers understand this does not bode well for science’s reputation. “Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown,” they begin their paper. “Scientific claims should not gain credence because of the status or authority of their originator but by the replicability of their supporting evidence.” Live Science followed up with this headline: “Only One-Third of Psychology Findings May Be Reliable – Now What?”Elizabeth Gilbert, one of the members of the Open Science Collaboration, wrote the following recommendations in The Conversation:We must stop treating single studies as unassailable authorities of the truth. Until a discovery has been thoroughly vetted and repeatedly observed, we should treat it with the measure of skepticism that scientific thinking requires. After all, the truly scientific mindset is critical, not credulous….Of course, adopting a skeptical attitude will take us only so far. We also need to provide incentives for reproducible science by rewarding those who conduct replications and who conduct replicable work….Better research practices are also likely to ensure higher replication rates. There is already evidence that taking certain concrete steps – such as making hypotheses clear prior to data analysis, openly sharing materials and data, and following transparent reporting standards – decreases false positive rates in published studies. Some funding organizations are already demanding hypothesis registration and data sharing.Although perfect replicability in published papers is an unrealistic goal, current replication rates are unacceptably low. The first step, as they say, is admitting you have a problem. What scientists and the public now choose to do with this information remains to be seen, but our collective response will guide the course of future scientific progress.It sounds like many researchers should form another collaboration. They could call it Scientists Anonymous.Data IntegrityPLoS Biology published a paper titled, “The Question of Data Integrity in Article-Level Metrics.” The article describes various anti-fraud measures the Public Library of Science (PLoS) is taking to prevent and detect fraud. “The efforts summarized above aim to mitigate some of the concerns about data integrity, but more work needs to be done,” the authors say before issuing their Call to Action. It should be obvious, though, that data are morally neutral. Any integrity in data requires moral action from human beings.Fake Peer ReviewOn another front, Nature reported that faked peer review led to 64 retractions. “The cull comes after similar discoveries of ‘fake peer review’ by several other major publishers,” reporter Ewen Calloway says. Some publishers are setting up safeguards in light of the scandal, but “It is important publishers take rapid but careful action,” a spokesperson for the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) says.“The particular problem of fake review comes about when authors are allowed to suggest possible peer reviewers,” says Wager. “The system sounds good. The trouble is when people game the system and use it as a loophole.”The involvement of third-party companies in bogus peer review is “more worrying”, Wager adds, because it could mean that the practice is more systemic and extends beyond a handful of rogue authors.Another worry is robotic publishing. Software can be designed to generate fake journal papers that might get published. It seems intuitive that robots can only have the ethics that are programmed into them by humans. If future dishonest robots vanquish the honest robots, the robots will not be morally accountable; it will only reflect the talent of the respective programmers.You can’t have science without honesty. Where does honesty come from? Can it evolve? See our next entry. (Visited 72 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0
5 Years On: ReadWriteWeb’s 2004 Interview With Tim O’Reilly
A Web Developer’s New Best Friend is the AI Wai… With the benefit of hindsight, I think O’Reilly nailed it in 2004 with this statement: “Microsoft will continue to dominate on the PC, but the PC is going to be a smaller and smaller part of the entire business.”The Mobile Web, for one, has taken attention away from Microsoft. Which is where Apple comes in…Apple and Web 2.0At the inaugural 2004 Web 2.0 Conference, Apple was a no-show. In talking about Apple’s position in the Web industry back then, O’Reilly said that “Apple is in a position they’ve been in a lot of times before. They’re like Moses showing the way to the promised land, but they don’t actually go there.”Although Apple never did open up, as O’Reilly foresaw, nevertheless they went on to create the most successful new gadget of the past decade: the iPhone. Apple also created a thriving iPhone app ecosystem. So in the case of the Mobile Web, Moses (a.k.a. Steve Jobs) actually did lead us to the promised land! Remember that Facebook had just launched in February 2004 and was confined to some selected American Universities (Harvard, Stanford, Columbia and Yale). It had yet to reach the 1 million users mark. While O’Reilly couldn’t have known that Facebook would turn into the juggernaut it now is, he did accurately predict that data lock-in would become a major issue:“I believe that data lock-in of various kinds is going to be one of the key tools of business advantage in the internet era. I think that as companies realize this, they will figure out how to be evil – so to speak (to use Google’s terminology) – and I predict that we will in fact have some major battles in that area.”ConclusionIt is remarkable how much can change in the Web industry in five years. Back in 2004, Facebook was a baby and Twitter wasn’t even a glint in the milkman’s eye. Among the big companies of that time, Apple hadn’t yet given birth to the revolutionary iPhone and Microsoft was entering its mid-life crisis.On reflection, Tim O’Reilly did extremely well in his 2004 predictions – considering how fast the Internet evolves. And I’m still grateful to him for giving an interview to an unknown New Zealand blogger. How times change…Image credits: Niall Kennedy; Shht!; Alex Eckford 8 Best WordPress Hosting Solutions on the Market Facebook and Data Lock-inIn 2004 I noted that “a lot of what Web 2.0 is about is users producing content and not just consuming it.” I pointed to O’Reilly’s own example at the time: Amazon compared to the Barnes & Noble website. However, I said that “the other side of that coin […] is the ‘data lock-in’ of users, where users may not necessarily have control over their content.” I asked O’Reilly if that was something for users to be concerned about?O’Reilly replied, in November 2004, that “there are companies that are trying to use data lock-in as a competitive tool – and there will eventually be a recognition that this is a problem.” This has indeed happened – and data lock-in is nowhere more of a problem than on the world’s most popular social network circa 2009, Facebook. Over the past few years we at ReadWriteWeb have written many articles about Facebook’s ‘walled garden’ approach to user data. Users can’t take their personal data elsewhere. What’s more, there have been bungled attempts to use that data for commercial means. Five years ago I interviewed tech publisher Tim O’Reilly about a new term that his company had just coined: Web 2.0. The first Web 2.0 conference had been held the previous month, October 2004, and O’Reilly had graciously agreed to give an interview to yours truly – “an unknown blogger from New Zealand,” as I put it back then. The interview ran in a 3-part series (see also part 2 and part 3) and covered Web 2.0, new business models, social software and eBooks.I’ve always been a big believer in learning from history as we look to the future. So let’s re-visit this interview from five years ago and see how prescient the father of Web 2.0 was.Microsoft and Web 2.0In 2004 the leading Web 2.0 companies were Google, Yahoo! and Amazon. But what of the dominant software company of the previous generation, Microsoft? I asked Tim O’Reilly back in November 2004 whether Microsoft’s core strategy of software lock-in would survive in web 2.0?O’Reilly argued that Microsoft would have to change: “I think that the business of Microsoft, the company of Microsoft, is going to continue to succeed. But I think the business model of Microsoft is going to have to change.”This has turned out to be the case. Over the past 5 years, Microsoft has slowly rolled out a “software plus services” strategy under the catch-all phrase ‘Live.’ While the Windows OS and desktop software such as Office continue to be Microsoft’s mainstay products, some of the functionality gradually moved into the cloud – e.g. syncing over devices. Vista, the current generation of Windows, began that transition. In 2009, Microsoft is even taking steps to put Office online. Tags:#Analysis#web Related Posts Top Reasons to Go With Managed WordPress Hosting Why Tech Companies Need Simpler Terms of Servic… richard macmanus
What Your Digital Surrogate Sells
Essential Reading! Get my 3rd book: Eat Their Lunch “The first ever playbook for B2B salespeople on how to win clients and customers who are already being serviced by your competition.” Buy Now You research your prospective clients before you call them. You research them before you actually make a sales call, too (right?). You try to learn as much as you can about them so you’re prepared when you finally with them. And there’s a lot of information available. You learn a lot.But that doesn’t mean that you are the only one doing their research in front of a sales opportunity. You are looking at your prospective client, and they are looking back. You Google them. They Google you. You check out their LinkedIn profile. They check out your LinkedIn profile.What do you want your prospective clients to find? What do you want your digital surrogate to sell them?Selling the Fact That You Are a Value CreatorYou want your digital surrogate to sell the fact that you are a value creator. You want your dream client to find a long trail demonstrating that you are a person with deep knowledge, good ideas, and the ability to help.Your digital surrogate needs to point to information and ideas that show you have that knowledge and that you know how to find good ideas. The knowledge you have can be your knowledge and the combined knowledge of all the people that work in your company. The ideas can be your ideas, as well as other people’s great ideas. Knowing where to find good ideas is a valuable skill your digital surrogate needs to possess.Your dream clients are looking for proof that you are a good investment of their time.Selling That You Can Help Produce ResultsYou also want your digital surrogate to sell the fact that you can help and that you can be trusted to deliver results. Your digital surrogate can be surrounded by references and testimonials from your past and present clients.Your LinkedIn profile is a great place for your digital surrogate to build the fact that you can be trusted to produce results. Your personal website and your company websites are also good places for your digital surrogate to sell your ability to help. Digital You can point to your ability to produce those results without being offensive and without being “me” oriented.Your dream clients want to see that you are serious about business.No, You Aren’t a Secret AgentToo many salespeople don’t have a digital surrogate at all. When a prospective client goes to look at them, they find nothing that speaks to the salesperson’s ability to create value or that they produce results. Instead they find incomplete profiles, some pitch from marketing about what the company does, and nothing personal enough to believe that the person behind the profile is in any way human.You may not be interested in social media, but social media is interested in you. You may think that it’s unfair for your prospective clients to judge you because you don’t have a presence on the social web, but they’re going to judge you nonetheless.You may not want a digital surrogate, but that choice is no longer up to you. If you’re going to succeed in sales, you are going to have to adopt the tools of the trade. These tools aren’t a substitute for the tools that came before them; they’re an addition to those tools. And just like you can’t opt out of using the telephone, you can’t opt out of using a digital surrogate.QuestionsDo you have a digital surrogate?What does your digital surrogates sell?How does your digital surrogate prove that you are a value creator and not a time waster?How does your digital surrogate prove that you produce results?If you’ve tried to opt out up until this point, what has to change for you to finally adopt some of the new tools of the trade?
Saulong hits weight for title fight
Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. When the workout was over, Saulong went to the scales and it registered 122 pounds, right on the dot for his International Boxing Federation super bantamweight title duel with Japanese champion Ryosuke Iwasa on Thursday at Ryogoku Sumo Arena.The 5-foot-7 1/2 Iwasa, 2 inches taller and 3 inches longer than Saulong, is favored to retain the crown owing to his 24-2 record laced with 16 knockouts, including his last four foes.FEATURED STORIESSPORTSWATCH: Drones light up sky in final leg of SEA Games torch runSPORTSLillard, Anthony lead Blazers over ThunderSPORTSMalditas save PH from shutoutSaulong holds a 21-2-1 card with eight knockouts. —ROY LUARCA MOST READ Tabuena leads Open favorites Pussycat Dolls set for reunion tour after 10-year hiatus Brace for potentially devastating typhoon approaching PH – NDRRMC John Lloyd Cruz a dashing guest at Vhong Navarro’s wedding LOOK: Iya Villania meets ‘Jumanji: The Next Level’ cast in Mexico Police teams find crossbows, bows in HK university PLAY LIST 01:29Police teams find crossbows, bows in HK university01:35Panelo suggests discounted SEA Games tickets for students02:49Robredo: True leaders perform well despite having ‘uninspiring’ boss02:42PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games01:44Philippines marks anniversary of massacre with calls for justice01:19Fire erupts in Barangay Tatalon in Quezon City Google honors food scientist, banana ketchup inventor and war hero Maria Orosa Typhoon Kammuri accelerates, gains strength en route to PH AFP official booed out of forum Families in US enclave in north Mexico hold sad Thanksgiving Read Next LATEST STORIES Training is officially over, but Ernesto Saulong is not about to waste time at his hotel room in Tokyo.Getting permission from his lead trainer, Joven Jimenez, the Filipino challenger sweated it out for nearly an hour at a local gym late Tuesday afternoon.ADVERTISEMENT View comments
La Salle, NU whip foes
Photo by Tristan Tamayo/INQUIRER.netDefending champion La Salle made quick work of Adamson, 25-16, 25-21, 25-20, in the UAAP Season 81 women’s volleyball tournament Saturday at Filoil Flying V Centre in San Juan.Rookie Jolina dela Cruz led all scorers with 10 points while Michelle Cobb dished out 25 excellent sets for the Lady Spikers, who rolled to 2-0 to start the season after beating fierce rival Ateneo in their first game last Sunday.ADVERTISEMENT View comments LATEST STORIES Ivy Lacsina fired a game-high 18 points to lead the way for the Lady Bulldogs, who played their first game minus lone setter Joyme Cagande, who sat out the match due to a left knee injury.“We’re happy but I can’t really express how happy we are because everyone knows the team’s struggles,” said Norman Miguel, who is in his first year as NU’s head coach.Without Cagande, who could miss the rest of the season after suffering what is feared to be an ACL injury in NU’s loss to FEU last week, the Lady Bulldogs found an able replacement in Joni Chavez, who was converted from libero to setter.Chavez did not disappoint with 14 excellent sets in her first stint as a setter.“It’s tough at first but I’m just taking it as a challenge,” Chavez said in Filipino.ADVERTISEMENT MOST READ Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. Urgent reply from Philippine football chief Grace Poe files bill to protect govt teachers from malicious accusations “There are still situations where they fail to adjust and commit errors and perhaps it’s because of their lack of communication inside the court,” said de Jesus, whose squad blew a 17-11 lead in the second set as Adamson pulled within a point, 22-21.Des Cheng and Aduke Ogunsanya added nine points each for La Salle while May Luna chipped in eight.FEATURED STORIESSPORTSPrivate companies step in to help SEA Games hostingSPORTSUrgent reply from Philippine football chiefSPORTSPalace wants Cayetano’s PHISGOC Foundation probed over corruption chargesBernadette Flora and Mary Joy Dacoron scored nine points apiece for the Lady Falcons, who fell to 0-2.Facing early adversity, National University rose to the occasion after beating University of the East, 25-19, 25-23, 25-19, in the earlier game to log its first win of the season. PDEA chief backs Robredo in revealing ‘discoveries’ on drug war
‘We are too hospitable,’ says Sotto amid SEA Games woes Oil plant explodes in Pampanga town Former US team standout shines for HD Spikers SEA Games hosting troubles anger Duterte US judge bars Trump’s health insurance rule for immigrants Private companies step in to help SEA Games hosting PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games PLAY LIST 02:42PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games01:44Philippines marks anniversary of massacre with calls for justice01:19Fire erupts in Barangay Tatalon in Quezon City01:07Trump talks impeachment while meeting NCAA athletes02:49World-class track facilities installed at NCC for SEA Games02:11Trump awards medals to Jon Voight, Alison Krauss Roselyn Doria added 12 points for NU.Sports Related Videospowered by AdSparcRead Next
Sharks avoid major meltdown, hold on to beat Minnesota Wild
December 20, 2019
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